IMF head Georgieva: 2023 will be difficult, global GDP growth will fall below 3%
World countries have sharply raised interest rates to fight inflation, but this is still the cause of unrest in the banking sector, the head of the IMF said. She urged to rely on the solidarity and cooperation of different parties.
The global economy has been in a turbulent state for a long time, experiencing shock after shock, the beginning of 2023 will be "another difficult year"; global GDP growth will fall below 3% due to the conflict in Ukraine and the tightening of monetary policy. This was stated by the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva at the Boao Asian Forum.
“The rapid transition from a long period of low-interest rates to the much higher ones needed to fight inflation has inevitably created turbulence in the banking sector in some advanced economies and made the choice of action even more difficult,” she said.
The head of the IMF suggested relying on solidarity and cooperation to solve the problem, recalling that due to China's integration into the world economy, more than 800 million people in the country escaped from poverty. Over the past four decades, the world economy has tripled, and developing countries have been the main beneficiaries - their economies have quadrupled.
Georgieva noted at the same time that in the conditions of high-interest rates and the depreciation of many currencies, the debts of the countries of the world pose a particular danger, and called for the development of effective mechanisms to resolve the issue.
Analysts at the Russian Central Bank still see risks of a more "substantial cooling of the global economy" than the regulator's baseline scenario, Elvira Nabiullina, head of the regulator, said in December.
The Central Bank believes that the dynamics of the country's GDP in 2023 will be in the range from minus 1% to plus 1%. A pool of economists polled by the Bank of Russia in early February expects a 1.5% decline in GDP on average in 2023. Such estimates diverge from the forecast of Moody's analysts, who indicated that Russia's GDP in 2023 will decrease by 3% after a 2.1% decline last year.
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The World Bank warned that the global economy was in danger of facing a " lost decade ". “The continued decline in potential growth has serious implications for the world’s ability to address a growing array of challenges unique to our time—chronic poverty, income disparities, and climate change,” Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president for development economics at the World Bank, said in March.
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